Day Race Forecast

day race forecast

info@commandersweather.com

Text Box: Event: Key West Race Week Forecast for: Tuesday, January 20, 2009 Outlook for: Wed, January 21, 2009 Prepared: 0630est Tue, January 20, 2009 Summary…Strong frontal system moves thru mid morning but overall winds look to be less than expected yesterday. 1) Yesterdays wind strength did not quite live up to expectations as model guidance overdid the wind speeds, a) The squall that moved thru also killed the breeze for awhile early pm. 2) But winds are up already this morning as a strong frontal system moving SE thru the East Gulf approaches from the NW. a) Winds at Sand Key at 4am were 260 at 26-29 kts. 3) There has been a lot of wind ahead of and behind this front across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Overnight as well. a) Winds 25-35+ kts b) Seas as high as 10-15 ft north of the front. 4) Yesterday it looked as though the strong winds behind the front were headed for the lower Keys today. 5) But model guidance has backed off the winds to some extent today generally 5-8 kts less than they had yesterday for this afternoon. 6) The high resolution model which did better with its lighter wind forecast yesterday is showing W winds 22-28 kts early today then dropping them to 20 kt range late morning and down to 15 kt range this afternoon. 7) Meanwhile the global model which was way too high yesterday has a similar trend today being strongest this morning at 24-28 kts then drops the breeze to 20-24 kts this afternoon after the frontal passage. 8) Will lower wind speeds from yesterdays forecast based on this as it does look as though the strongest winds behind the front may not arrive until tonight – when it turns decidedly colder. 9) With the front passing thru Key West second half of the morning expect wind directions will shift from around 260 early this morning to 300-320 after front passes thru. a) Right now expecting this frontal passage to be 9-11am. 10) Radar does show a broken band of squally showers with the front to the N-NW of Key West. a) Could be a wind gust to 30-35 kts when this broken line moves thru mid morning b) A few linger scattered showers are possible into early pm. 11) Sea state is up this morning probably 3-6 ft and will become confused midday with the wind shift NW swell will be developing this afternoon. 12) So conditions will be on the rougher side today but not as bad as it looked yesterday. Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is EST Weather…Becoming partly cloudy to cloudy this morning, Brief squally shower or 2 late am ending early pm. Considerable cloudiness this afternoon. High low to mid 70s dropping to upper 60s this afternoon. Seas 4-7 ft Division 1 to 3-6 ft Division 2,3 from WSW-W trending NW in the pm Error Factor 1) Wind strength will be the biggest concern today. 2) Could see winds gusting to 25-30 kts for a few hrs this morning ahead of the front and to 35 kts with squally showers mid morning. 3) Then winds may lay down for a time after the front moves thru as low as 15 kts early pm. 4) Late day breeze may begin to build again with peak wind second half of the afternoon 20+ kts. 5) Max left early this morning at 250 . 6) Direction will show a hard shift right with the frontal passage as far as 320 by noon 7) Then likely stabilize this afternoon around 300-310 with limits 290 left and 320 right. Wed, Jan 21 1) Frontal system will be down into eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas by daybreak 2) High pressure will stretch from Alabama to NE Mexico. 3) Expect a solid 18-25 kt breeze and some rough seas early in the day. 4) This is expected to lay down gradually midday and afternoon hours to the 15-20 kt range. 5) Direction may show a small right trend midday then could go back left mid to late pm 5) It will be much colder with temps mid 50s early not getting much above 60 in the afternoon 6) Likely a cloudy start but should see increasing amounts of sun in the afternoon. 0900: 350-010/18-25 1100: 360-020/17-22 1300: 010-030/16-21 1500: 360-020/15-20 1700: 350-010/14-18 Weather…Cloudy start then becoming partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon. Much cooler Highs only around 60 Seas 5-8ft early division 1 diminishing to 3-6 ft pm. Seas division 2,3 3-6 ft am diminish some during the day Best regards, Tom Mattus

Cruising Forecasts

Racing Forecasts

Other Forecasting Services

for cruising forecast

for racing forecast